Close Please enter your Username and Password
Reset Password
If you've forgotten your password, you can enter your email address below. An email will then be sent with a link to set up a new password.
Cancel
Reset Link Sent
Password reset link sent to
Check your email and enter the confirmation code:
Don't see the email?
  • Resend Confirmation Link
  • Start Over
Close
If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service


cgy1963
5600 posts
12/29/2009 5:55 am

Last Read:
8/5/2010 5:45 am

新中国三十年


B] [ Ƶ¸


ëȨǵƴͳĻعⷴ
йлʷϣȨл񹲺͹һľʮ¿ԺһžžʮʮˡΪƽİٴ٣½Ϻͺɵмģףѧ糤мˣ˵׫ϲǶʱĹˡʮܣǸпǧһѾѧʷϱۿ¥ۿͣۿʳۿۿĸ↑ţұ͵⣬˭ԭ˷£Ϊлһӣĸ˥ҲԶѲ˵¡ΣսʿʱҪ糤ķԸ޹ں
ǵԶһŶ꣬ʱֿȵİڽʮ١λԵƸ٣жĿΪȥ룬һԻҰӥѫһ룻ᣬ˷ݡδ׵ģйǹ˴µȨҲһͳġӴͳɣִʢ˥ǰۣ粻ص©йĺ쳯ӦҲиѫǽҪΪ׶ΣͨʷУһˮˣǾֻܼȥʷ빦һһʱҪɸʲôӣʷԱ¼»ʺˣԤΪġԽʷΪȨˣֻǰ;֮˹׾ƪ⡸֮ۡҲ
˹Сƽһ֮߰ʱǸëҪûġйʱһ£ڹ⣬ڿڽޣΪСƽˡʱҲ˵ϵĹϵֻԤʮ꣬Сࡹ֮Ϊ֮ϣ˹Ҳڵ˹ִ֮󣬱߲dz֮˵˼ңʮعѫһ롹ϣȫʼȫգһ͵ףѡСƽˡΪˡҪɸͬˡ;Ͼ;ͺˡDZ߶ʷʮأʥҲ˵ǡ˶ӡǵα˭֪ĸ̫ˡܹԣçǫʿϽܣë๼ͻϡӡëǵڿսʤëڽڡѣлĵλ˭ȣҶ٣Ūɽ󣬼֮أëҲøʬ³áιرգʷżˣܲ̾˵߶Ե˹Ĺ۲죬Ҳ˼ʷ߸ɰ֮䣬ڵϸǹ֮ǰʷҹ̲Ԥ۶ҲȻʱδ꣬˹͸лʷǰδеѪϴ찲ŵİܱŪαѷ֣ǰʱıʷIJпᣬһڴˣ澯˷θ
Ӧа֮ٵйȨ
ڻ˵ͷ˸ݺ󣬶˵йȨ곤Ҳǵǹ󵳵ëϯҲ˵һһ˵һҲꡢ׳ꡢꡢ׶ΣҲӲϲȻɡëϯǰȫ֪˼εġ꡹󻹲ֻ˰ʮԦˣȨܻһ꣬Ҳ͹ˡǸڹϴ񵳣ǻһˣһԭ׸ҪɡˣûıҪˣȻޡ֮ΥʷɣΪҲᱻʱ꣬кսǰŷɴ⵳ɼͶսŷIJͶ˵ȵȲˣ
йҲǸл塣ʷ񣬰ԻޡΪصϯëijĸޣʷҾ޷ˣʷѧϱżȻżȻϵҲղ˵ġ˽йʷķչѭġȻ·ǰ;תۣˡżȻĶٴ죬ʷȻиϸĽǽվͲԽ޴ˡظһ䣬ǽֻܰ;֮Ҳ
ǽյʷȴǽʷıܿ˽ʷԣôʷת͵һ׶ΣҲδʼ̽ߡԤ⣬ʷҺڽ̼֮ԻִѧʷңΪʷγɵHistorical Causation֪ԭɲֻ͹֮䣬ҪûбźãҲʷչ֮棬κǰչʷ޷ȫ֮Ҳ
ೢѧԻһʱ嶯˸±䡻±䲻дйʷҲдʷغ±ǸʷѧеġżȻѧеġһԷҲ֮Ԥף곤ߣһ˳ٿҲУ·ɱҧ𣬸ġ±䡹һԵӡ
Ȩתĩڵ
Ȼմ½ϵȨڽйĻתʷУЩʲôأش⣬Ҫ֪ȥǧһлͨʷʵһרʷǧ꣨һǧɣлͨʷһʷһת䣬ʵκԲתҲνʷġȻ
ǡרơǣķǡһ˶ҲǸĻ໥ϵƶȵļҲһͳλЧݡΡȻҲһƶȣҲǶʦͽڿνһʽҲԴӵרƣҪתΣһҪξתͿʼһתתҪȫת꣬ʵ겻ΪҲԱڲͬ׾һű书һ۵ġһθۡΪ˵Ҳ
йʷϣһתij򣬴ʼԡѻƬս1839-1842Ҫϵļ£ʼɴָɡ֮ʱʮ֮ĩĽգתһʮˡ粻֦ڣҳ©ٹʮ꣬һҶһʷת;Ϳɽˡ
һʷĴǾͲѿ½ϽյȨ֮ˡ£
һǡתڡʷϿУһн׶ԵȨ
мԣǰеרƵŴεԶ
ȨͶȨݼӾȨݼι
ģǧѷĻˣⳡת˶ʻʷϿ
Ȼֻǽйʷչ֮棨natural courseʮʱ⣬׾Թ϶һ˲ţº֦ڣҳ©ӷӡ֮ˡΣͲ֪ںˡ
ҸתĩȨԣйȨʮʷʦҶ֮ţᣬԾڸ
ëǰë׶
ʮйȨĿԷֳëǰë׶Ρëǰǰ󷲶ʮ꣨1949-1976ȫȷȫѰ񣬶ľҲŪʳֵıԵԳǧʷϣǰδеһ׶ΡëѶʮ꣨1976-1999ӻġɡСƽġɡɡٵ졢۽ȥġɡɡÿѵһ䲻Ҳй̹Ͻ֣ɱ˲գ۵ĶԭǸȨŴ£ޱҪİܱʣǴ˵ԵĹ̩񰲣ľƽҲԳһģģֵöʷ߸̵ĵڶ׶Ρ
һεʷǾͿԼԵؿйӡơתĽݣԵ硣ǰһȻǧƵβͻعⷵգһᾭñʣũҵתҵã֮£ȨҲ֮ݼȨಽأ֮ȻķҲ
Ͻƺе㲻ģҺĻͷѧϰһϽһʺ壬Ҳ֡áԭǰ Qʱ֮ʱҲйתͣѽһ½׶ΣҪͷѧϰҲȥһ£ܾҪɧšĹ˾Բ˶Ҳй⣬νһԵġӰơ⣻ΪֻǹѵݶӣӰˡ⣬ǾΪë˶˼ˡתУ׶䲻ͬ⣬ճҲԸӺ˹ԡ

̸̸ëϵΪרƣعⷵյģһ׶Ρ
һ׶εصëһ˵ëһ˵ʮУȫԶŷ޺й˿Ҳڡһͳһʮ֮ãƵȫֻɣһǡл񹲺͹ܷһǡл񹲺͹ܷëʱֻһŷֽһҲûʵйλѡġϯ棬Ȼץߣʧ¡һܷϯҲˣΪֽ֪ӡ
ڡڰٷԷϵ֮£Удʷ˻ë㿪ϸɲַ֮һҼȻ£˳ǣʳɫҲ⻨СȻӦܵ㡸ŮԿطĻµĻҲλźáйʷ̫桸ͱȨķġϸӰ̨壬̨ҲһԿţҲڴˡйǡ֮ȲرƳһ»ȻǾëرɵģƵģҲǺԶģȻ֤޴˱ҪҲ
һƬֽ֮μأ߳λع˰ﵱȨʱڣܳϿҵӴǵĸɲ̣Ҳܵ˵Ȼûзɣǵĵߡߴ淨ɡƶأоʷĺ͵ʷĶ֪йǰߣԭǡʡƶġֱǰ󣨴Ǵһ婤һǵξ֣˼棬ƶġһ귴Ժ󣬽ģëһˡëʮ꣬ĻʱڣһһëĴֻ֣Ƿɡëߣﲻ壬Ҫ͸һλһߵŮʿĶҴ룬ܴξ֣ٲȫ
ߣë϶óڣǿȫĸ־ɽߡؾͱɻˣʮ꣬Ǽֱ״εĺΪˡֺΪëδʼ֪ĸڣ˹ŵEdgar SnowʱҲЦسԼǡдɡ˹ŵйͨȻйЪ֮󾹴ұ˵ëǸɡеġ¶ĺСһʱŷйͨý壬Ϊ֮ʧɫҶ¶ĺСͬҲһʱұ亣ϻᣬŪЦԷǡ
ë¶ĺСһιģʽлǧʷδУʷϣԭʼ֮⣩Ҳδŵġ
ë϶õ͹
йΪһ޶ĹҲǧ˶ʥͺܣͲ֮ʿǹ˶й֮ʱҲ־ʿƣɱʵʿ洦еģôͷôɡĺСҸһأʵҲֻǸĻת͵ĶתУͳĵƶDZʯֵȫҵˡµĵƶȻҪ꣬ĥʱȨյġɡĺСأë˵ѹʲôΡ˵ֻҪڡձдƪۣȻһ͵ףҪɶأѡ١֪ԼľеѡٶǼٵģֻǹ˳Ȩġ¡ǽžģġϯǡɵġɶѡ٣߸עڽʮʮ֮ڣë󶫵ѡδѡġë¼ڴεļϣһǣĵĶ߽ԿɲġĿǰഥֿɵãԼÿǰۡƪƪޣͲϸעˡ֮
֮ƱǿëλСѧĽԱũ֪ʶӣũ䣬Ǻͳʤ㡢㡢ƳԪ谡ԳɡȫӢۺúͬһֶֻʱͬ˼ΪϣԼӵʱɫʰˡǵ״̬Զ벻йʽġʵۡϵӣũҵΪǸᡣʵDzˣǴӴͳġרơתִġΡȻݱij˼Ҿ޴ҰˡִμӦ߱ģйεһ㳣ʶͻ硸ȨЩԺҲӰҲûеġëִȨʶʵȨȨ㲻أë϶ԷɵʶҲͣǧǰͳҵIJΡ֪ķɣֻdz֮ġ̷͡ѡִѧScience of Jurisprudenceеױ֮öѹνĻ˵һŰֽǿηǣӲ˵ͳֻʲ׼ķѧֵһˡ˼ķѧʲôд֪ʶҲûˡԼ֪ȴǿ֪Ϊ֪Ӣκ档߸עͲͬˣԭͳѧѵʦ첻ͬķѧһס塹ڹ͡ȻҲƫȴԶëܼҲ黳ȡʿѧϰ̬ϣë罯ʯȻɽ͸ˡ
ëִѧ֪֮й쵼ײУҲǸ̫⡣ʱڹ֯ץȨġɡšסҲˡǷûëʵɣͶй᱾ʣеĵоľ񡣸ȣëкȺ
ë󶫻һױ죬ܼëƶйװ飬ͨйͳġѧȾŪŷҵġȨԼԭʼũսë״ͳѧ֮գDzӢݣ۲Ŵԣ˫ȫȫǿһͺľ飬ڵѹȺۣͻܸ߽ϣͳһ½ġڵ£Ҫ˵޿ܣʹӳˡǣѣǵ磬㹤ҵиʽСǡappropriate technologyƼҪǡ㵱ʱҵʱδȵĴ䡸߿Ƽhigh technology̲ͷƿ䵹ˡëһףйȺʵȡȨɡһ׸ǡ appropriateܴ£ȨɲҲǣʱ˼벻߳ȵȨһף𽥱ʱǡˣëδȴ̲䣬ͱɷ⽨飬Ϊרʱһ޵ıʵϣйڰȫзķëΪëһ½׶Σѱһӽ׷Ľ½ڡԭתʱεëҲһʱߡ򸴺ԡ
ëĸ˳ݣʼٸ
ݵʷһ˵ë֮ȫһˣʵʼһ飬˾ίϯȡ˾ȨӴץסǹˣݡʵرȫһˣȴһйȫڼ䣬㡸˳ݡһȥġй꿹սѸٷչӵаںɽʱ渱ϯΪ׵ëɸ߸ɣΪ뵳ڹȨ͵ȨͻëϣΪȨȫ֮ϵߵ쵼⶷Ͷ嵳ĵһ壬ë塹Ϊȫָ˼룬λ塣ëʱǫʿ֮ʱԸ಻ƽġë塹Ϊë˼롹һȫһͨµµġë˼롹Ȩ֮ë󶫾ͲйһͨԱˡһϦ֮ͱй񵳵ɽˡ
ҳȫйµ£ԼëڵеijԽλ
ܸ٣
й˼йʵ֮ͳһ˼멤ë˼룬ΪԼһйָ롭
һ£Ա
ڶԱ
һŬԼľ̶Ⱥ˼壬ë˼ĻժԵԭģ硸й빲Աһİۺ޳ٰ棬羭ҳһ
ë󶫾ߴµλԺ󣬺Ȼı㷢һйԴԺ󣬾ͱëɵļȨëϸ˵λˣڷëëϵ͸ԱDZرɱڵڿվԪ˧չĵе񵳵ķչ;ͬ顣ԴԺ󣬷սй𽥱ɽë֮ģһģ֮ˡڶǣּȨʽĸеĶ䣬׶Ȩֻ½ģͬʱȨҲδвõġ˹?Τ˵ģȨԸıȻҲ
йߴ֮ʱëijߵ¥ϲ㡹䲻޵֮ͬ˽ĶҲΪ׵ǰ;롣ߴϸë쵼ΪȫȷԱʡʷұ׼֮߾˵ë֮Բ̫֡ǵʮһ֮һ˴ڼ䣩廹ϵˡͬһ棬빧ëϯ¥Ϣɾ벻ˡ෴ģȴŭλߡΪűȨᣬëʩչIJֶεķĹЧӦijԼŪüҲһԻ͵Ȩʮ񣬶һնŪٲ֮еĴ½ʷңΪҰģ־ǰӰ࣬͵ʴףڱݡʷеļЦľϣܡʵҲdz⡣˵ڲٸë󶫸˳ˣСƽ˳ݡϷԣdz߲ѧڵ֮ǰ׫֮Ǻ󻰣½
ʵۣϯ
ëðӣȻIJԸʯǸͬĶðӣȴ߿Чʡڿս󣬽ë¹ԭһ̳Ӻϣ꣬ͳԵġϽͳһ˴½Ч֮ߣҲȷǾ˵ġˣСƽͳ˵ûëϯûйŲҲдʷֻ̲֪һ֪Ҳ
йȡȨԺ󣬳˵ڵƣҲȷDzġҿ찲ͷȺҾãĺ֮ڣڻڡйվˣ۹ͷ⽨һȥˡεƣ˭֪ʱδѮݵ֮ڣʳǹҰأ
ëǻͷβȨ½ϵйʷң˵ййĸǸۻĺʷңСɺͳڣҲЦֻ£¡Ǻ죬δ˵Ȼë󶫺Բ£㵹ҪԼӽ͡
Թŵʵ˵ë۲ŴԣҪʵһλϹϵġ֮㡢ԿطԪҲëˣԬҵʣҾ湧άһûʵۣͳϯҲΪʵۣǧ塢Ͼ顢ᡢϵӣб£ƹ£塢Ͼ䰢ǣҲձҲ
ԬëǸȥδԶʱ¡ҲԶȡ¡סΪֻ⽨⽨࣬·ѭ¾ˡûˡ«Ҳû«ˡҪͳϯȡʽӢʽʽʽʽձʽѧģûǸᡢӣҲҪɣġ˼˼ҵĴͳǵİƶȣĿҰ᣿
֪ƶߣǻ֮Ҳǻ֮䣬겻ΪҲʸȡӣҲû̥ʮ£Ǽġ˱֮Ͽ֮ҲԬı磬DZŸͳİȥʵۡëı磬DZŸʵ۵İȥͳˣĿҲҵѧԺһ̾׳־δ꡹Ҳ
Эܽ
̸̸񹲺͹Ŀܡ
žһľ꣬ϴƽ֮йҪ֯ȨˡΪڿս󣬸õԸ񵳼СʿͨЭ̻项֯ëΪˣһСءһЭ鱻񵳵ƻˣ񽯽ʯˣҪ񵳺͸絳굳ĻἮɡ쵼ԭе˵Сɣͺʿ֯Эһдͷ
һﱸ֮Эһľʮ״μڱһʮˣС͸ʮλʽⶨͬ졹ʱܷѡ졢裬Լ֯ѡIJݰپµĽŹµٴοʱʮˣҲʮȨʱˡ
ݵ˻䣬ëֵĻ֮Уйعŵʱëά֡лϹΪϲƶ¼θҷԡëȨӦ뽯ľȨ׻ߣáлϹˡۣڽл񹲺͹Ľ顣ǰó¼θĹ䱻һٵĹǽ̵ˮ䰴һٵ˽ĸ񣬲пϵ֮ûλȰˮ䰵ϻȵҸɹлĹţûбϳպϿġۡ˵ڣͺðˡеλȨһ˰ɥߣ죬ɲա
֮⣬ҲˡǺ졹Ϊ죨֮ǣ޲׼͹СȫײġŽ᡹ϡ¾Ϊ衣ѡëΪϯܶΪԺ¹Աʮλһľʮһʱ찲ǰڶʮ֮йʮ꣩ëϯ춯ťǺ죬ȽȽգȫһƬйʷϵġл񹲺͹ʽˡ
ë̾սԴ
ʱڱй½ûȫšйδ£žڶʮ˾ʦ֮ڣ½ʱʮ¶ʮգУҲðͷһսƬײʹþָҶɣʹޡëҲڻϴ˰̡
ʱɽϡ̨졢ȶغ죬ڹ֮У˵ˣǨʱʮʮգйƹİڽɽҲפд򡣴ͳ֮ززʮһһ壬ʮշܲý̨֮ȥйνⳡսйͳһҲкһβɨҪء
ë󶫺Ļ䣬ɨսУһսϵĴȽϣԺͼ̨塣˵ӦüжҰȫǪ̇̄˵̨峹׽ˣȻٻӾȥһϺϣ奵IJв֮ͼȻӾϣ֮֮ʱȻһսڳʰ뵺ͻȻˡԭ̨ͳʣѻ֮ͳ³ţʱδ˼߽ӵ̨庣ϿѴ½̨֮ƾսһѷɵĸǡԭΣѵ̨壬һһϦ֮䣬Ͱʯڽˡ
ëº̾ϢսԴˡȴϣϣѣΰëϯںδأûдڹͷһս֮ëϿʶսδᷢԲžȴǽаյɽսᶫӰߵĹͷ֮սҲǸżȻ߰ܣʤؽҲޱʤİء
ԮĸӺ
ڡսıǾ͸͵ġ±䡹һһʷϵġżȻˡġ±䡹дйʷҲдʷڴıԵȴȻһһϢй
ûεġսҲдйʷдʷڴıԵȻһϢй񵳡̸ʱ̣ս±䣬Թãͬǹ֮ǰͻȻȣʮʮ˴˱˴ˣʮֹƽ
ѣһдʷġżȻ֮£գ˵ţʷǡȻ͡żȻΪãءЩżȻӰ죬й⽻Ҳ֮ͬʱޡĪй⽻ϸ䡸һߵߡ·ߡԽȨĻתĹȨҸȼйһҵġսҲͺ͹񵳵ġ˷սһģһˡ
һս꣬й˳ˣٷֻ˵ʮ򣬱߽ŦԼһλ̽׵ĺսϱϸ˵ꡣ˵й־ԸڳսӪӪë󶫵Ķ಻⡣ս֮ңdzҲ֢δ𡣳˵Ǿ͵ļȨ˷ġ塹Ժе׻֪ͻỪרңһ򾡣йΪֵһŵĵˣΧΧˡ˾ӵڶʱֺã֮ĵˡҪĪ˹⳥սծ⽻»бı֮̾
µǣһսҲй·ߡ͡һߵ⽻̾ǣҷչֻǶڵĺԵģҪҲֻ⽻硣ȵǷִʱǸ͵͵ɡ
йչͲȻˡйļ·ǣ浽Եʶ̬Ӱ⽻ϵһߵߣϸǼߵһ͵סѪɺӣʬǶɽǧܺʱʮ꣬ëѡŻδҲ
ܣؼǸżȻġսսżȻDzǾ˹ֵľƣýճλç³çж˩סëԷ֮ˮ㣬ȡ֮أԶڻսڼ䣬˹׸ȥ¾ë󶫣Ϊžɡɽ룬δսΪëܡһľĩëĪ˹ʷʱΪΥǸ˹ݸ˵ʤûдġ
йžɽδһľ£ճɾͻӾ£һ£ijס˹ֶжʶ˲Ҳ˹֪£Ϊβ׸ǰֹҲʷɡּʾսǾ˹־ƣĬŷġʷ֮Ŀĸ˩סë󶫣֮ҲëҲ͸Ը˹֮Ȧף԰ΣҲǿɼҲ޲ɼҲҲνһţֱƽšɡ
սԽ֮ս
ǡԮҲŵһ档һйĹʵλǵù֮սβʱһż߷ǸУɭԻҪԮʼ


cgy1963

12/31/2009 5:35 am

谢谢!